NJ 5v5 Scoring Chances

The other day I stumbled upon this great site: http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/. With it you can get positions for all different types of shots (as logged by NHL officials). SH, EV, PP, a certain player, vs a certain goaltender, teams…you name it.

Now, for years we’ve seen that NJ is a great possession team but doesn’t do enough with said possession. Simply, they don’t score enough goals to offset what goes the other way. It’s been said that they don’t have good enough shooters, don’t generate quality chances with their possession (OH YEAH SHOT QUALITY!!1). Well, here we have scoring chances logged by an NHL/team official.

Enjoy the image dump. I’m terrible at Excel by the way.

Note: players are sorted from left to right by their average 5v5 TOI. Also keep in mind that zone starts/QualComp isn’t included in this, but I think we all have a pretty good idea of who gets the tough assignments at 5v5.

 

Blue Bar: Good. Red: Bad. Green is just the difference (don’t be a minus).

NJFSCORINGCHANCES

Zajac/Jagr are killing it. We knew this. But it’s worth noting that basically every single regular (except for the recently acquired Ruutu) is a + in scoring chances. I bet most fans would think CBGB to be a minus, but they’re actually positive despite often being thrown to the wolves. Also: poor Josefson :-(

For sake of comparison with Corsi% and GF%: Jagr on ice at 5v5: 57.7% of the scoring chances (256-187). Compare Jagr on ice (57.7%) with his Corsi% (58.3) and GF% (59.2%). Yay, future blog material!

NJDDSCORINGCHANCES

 

Andy Greene is a boss. Give him the Norris, seriously. The Good Guys get 60% of the scoring chances with him on the ice. For example, Ryan Suter only gets a puny 54%, Chara 53%, Doughty 55%.

The rest? Well, you can kinda tell why Gelinas has been in and out of the line-up and recently a forward. Hell, even Salvador is a positive. Larsson broke even, if you’re wondering where his green bar is. But now, the grand finale…

NJGOALIESSCORINGCHANCES

Edit: forgot to put it in the title of the chart but the above is of course also 5v5, like the D and F.

We all know the narratives: Devils score more for Marty than Cory, Marty Just Wins, wins are what matters…well, the Devils have scored more goals for Marty. But do they play better (offensively speaking) for him? Scoring chances are virtually the same but keep in mind the slight difference in games played: Marty gets 9.9 scoring chances for per game, Cory 9.2. I’m thinking that a difference of 0.7 per game isn’t that outlandish, given Cory generally getting tougher starts for much of the season. I’d wager the difference in Scoring Chances Against also stems largely from this. However, when divided up by their games player, the difference is 0.2 scoring chances per game.

When it all adds up, the difference is quite small in scoring chances and enormous in goal support. Marty has been incredibly lucky and Cory the exact opposite. If there was a real difference between how the team played in front of Marty vs Cory then I suppose you could have a case for why you’d start one over the other. It turns out you don’t. Should’ve gone with Cory all season long.

 

EDIT: As noted by @LemaireWatch on Twitter, the goals against in the chart above are only on scoring chances. In other words, softies on non-scoring chances aren’t included. Marty’s differential isn’t very good (28 “softies” vs 12 for Cory”).

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Finally, for comparison with the Scoring Chances For/Against: Goals For/Against. Steve Bernier probably hasn’t had a lucky day in years.

NJFGOALS NJD5V5GFGA

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